黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 10／11／2010 （6／12／2023再修訂）
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摘要
本文以情境規劃等企管理念與體驗，試擬人類今後在地球共存之道。
本文提出統籌全球人類244個政治實體，共同改造聯合國，創新成立「全地球和平統一發展管理委員會」，重新擴大建立一個合乎全球民主憲政共和世界主義的地球中央議會與世界中央政府組織，以統籌各別國家所無法處理的世界性的議題與政務，制定與執行人類在世界發展的共同規律，全球統一立法，依法執行人類和平統一的新生活方式，共同維護全球人類在地球生活尊嚴，互敬互重，共存共榮。
以本文所述情境，試擬地球人類合理的共存之道，企圖促動全球政治人物，引導地球人類不流血的政治制度組織變革發展。
在高度不確定的環境情況，將地球人類組織變革發展的情境規劃，與傳統的策略規劃與其他的企管理念思維，融合運作，讓全球所有政治實體領袖與智囊團隊引導地球人類，在地球危機的引爆，還未發生之前，想像性進入可能性的政治制度組織變革發展的情景預演，提前審慎思考這未來情境，給予對應。亦即，期望促動地球人類，以「組織學習」機制的展開，徹底實踐操作地球人類政治制度組織大變革發展，共同創造人類組織學完美的最高境界，在地球和平永續共存共榮發展。
前言
許多科學證據指出，全球溫室氣體，必須於2015 年開始下降，以控制全球溫度上升不會超過攝氏兩度，否則氣候變化，將對地球帶來不可逆轉的災難；全球人類，只有不足10年的時間，制止全球不斷增長的溫室氣體排放量 。
如果未嚴格控制全球溫室氣體的排放，地球氣候環境災難，將達攝氏2度c引爆的臨界點，也就是氣候環境災難，將惡性引爆，再也無法收拾 。
本文以情境規劃等企管理念與體驗，試擬人類今後在地球共存之道。
內容
情境規劃等一些企管理念與體驗：
近百年來，全球卓越企業善用管理技術與工具，創造營運績效。1900年代是「泰勒科學管理」導向階段。1930年代是馬斯洛「行為科學」及日本「全面品質管理」理論導向階段，1960年代是波特「競爭策略」管理導向階段。1970年代，更進一步強化「機器化量產」導向階段。 1980年代，更進一步強化「品質」導向。1990年代迄今，更進一步強化「知識與策略」導向等管理技術與工具，落實企業經營效益。
本文作者於職場以 Dr. Deming之 PDCA（plan - do - check - act）管理循環模式， Dr. Ichak Adizes的企業生命週期診療理念，導入八大經營管理核心理念之ISO國際品質管理系統，發展出農企業界組織運作與品質持續改善之兩種12- step‘s cycle 的模式。另將「企業再造」(Re-engineering the Corporation ; Michael Hammer & James Champy )的4R(Reposition， Restructure，Re-system，Revitalization)，綜合百年來各門道的論述，與作者累積的體驗，更完整的演化為，一髮動全身，缺一不可之「創新變革6R」(Reposition，Reorganization & Restructure，Re-system， Revitalization，Reprocessing，Remarketing)，的創值診療循環模式理念的創作，具體落實農企業經營管理效益。
未來學大師托夫勒Alvin Toffler指出：「誰佔領創意的制高點，誰就能控制全球」。
情境規劃(Scenario planning)是一種策略導向等管理技術，是一種搜尋構思的方法，是一種預測未來的方法，「情景規劃」是對未來各種不可知現象的一種描述方法，目的在發展出一套「真實世界可能會如何運作」的邏輯式思考。
2006年，情境與權變規劃管理技術，在全球開始流行，最新一次25項管理技術，與KM與BPR並列全球排名的第8名。
情境規劃最早出現在第二次世界大戰之後不久，當時是一種軍事規劃方法。美國空軍試圖想像它的競爭對手，可能會採取哪些措施，然後準備相應的戰略。
在20世紀60年代，蘭德公司和曾經供職於美國空軍的赫爾曼‧卡恩（Herman Kahn），把這種軍事規劃方法，提煉成為一種商業預測工具。
情境規劃可讓組織發展，全方位轉型，導引邁向最佳未來。
情境規劃Scenario planning （TAIDA）步驟：
（1）探尋軌跡（Tracking），依循環境變化及徵兆，探尋潛在的機會與威脅，並確認趨勢。
（2）分析（Analyzing），根據已發生或正在產生變化的事件，分析趨勢之因果關係，並規劃未來可能發生情境。
（3）想像（Imaging），確認未來情境發生的可能性，並加入組織發展的願景，即組織預期的未來（desired future）。
（4）決定（Deciding），根據所獲得之資訊，衡量其重要程度，並作決定，且據以發展行動策略。
（5）行動（Acting）：將組織所規劃的新資訊，帶至組織及成員的舊經驗中，並與其整合，並開始行動。
情境規劃模擬出未來的情境，提醒管理者及組織成員，眼前所運用管理制度與流程，可能無一適用於未來經營形態，必須改變經營模式、想法、觀念、心態與價值觀。藉此激勵及促動組織成員深入思考未來，解凍及重塑心智模式，積極學習新事物，共同思索修正模式，落實解決方案及行動策略，才能創造成功的未來。
另外，現代教育心理學之父桑代克（1890）操作制約增強理論：「操作制約學習」又稱為「工具制約學習」，外在刺激 ⇒內在反應 ⇒後果。是一種由刺激引起的行為改變的過程與方法。外在刺激與內在反應的慣性聯繫，因不斷操作獎或懲，而增強或減弱。動物任何行為，都是由獎勵和懲罰的歷史決定。行為的改變是刺激，因此，動物的隨機活動，都可視為對環境的操作。適當的獎懲，可使動物行為定型。許多觀念或行為模式，是可以藉由練習，而學習到經驗的獲得。適當的賞罰（增強物），能刺激反應（行為）的朔成，所以有時在適當的時間，給予適當的刺激（增強物），其實也是一種生活行為模式培養（反應）的方式。
此外，中國陰陽管理哲學「有容乃大」：要跨越邊界，就要犧牲部分自己，讓對方也跨越你的邊界。看到全貌（策略）與打破人為邊界（boundary）是整合問題的核心。「郭台銘企業經營語錄」提出之三合工作精神「集合、整合、融合」：如何先集合再組合，從組合進階到整合，最後融合成一體，乃是（組織）企業經營的最大挑戰。
今後人類在地球Do right thing的思考，以如上情境規劃等，古今中外的企管理念與體驗，試擬人類今後在地球共存之道。
（1）探尋軌跡（Tracking）
人類在地球生存環境現況 ：
人類群體習性總是處於「煮蛙定律」，火燒屁股還不知覺。溫室氣體，現在比過去 65萬年期間高。
聯合國的「政府間氣候變遷小組」估計，與1980年至1999年的標準，相互比較，到2100年時，地球表面平均溫度，將會上升攝氏1.1度到6.4度。
氣溫上升，導致海洋變暖和，南北極冰山融化，如所有冰山都融化，海平面將上升60公尺，海平面將於2100年，上升15-95公分，導致低窪地區海水倒灌，全世界3分之1居住在海岸邊緣的人口，將遭受威脅。
據推測，到西元2050年，地球平均溫度，將上升攝氏2度；在過去一萬年中，地球平均溫度只不過上升攝氏2度。
科學家指出，全球溫室氣體，必須於2015 年開始下降，以控制全球溫度上升不會超過攝氏2度，否則氣候變化，將對地球帶來不可逆轉的災難；全球人類，只有不足10年的時間，制止全球不斷增長的溫室氣體排放量 。
氣候環境災難引爆主因，已被證實是當前人類的生活習慣與方式所造成的。
這是全球人類的緊急事件，這是全球244個政治實體領袖，於今日必須緊急處理的道德與責任。
當前地球人類處理氣候變遷情況
1992年「氣候變化綱要公約」：
1992年5月在紐約聯合國總部通過「氣候變化綱要公約」，1994年3月21日公約正式生效。
公約規定，將大氣中溫室氣體的濃度，穩定在防止氣候系統，受到危險的人為干擾的水平上。這一水平，應當在足以使生態系統，能夠自然地適應氣候變化，確保糧食生產免受威脅，並使經濟發展能持續進行的時間範圍內實現。」
但是該公約，沒有對個別締約方，規定具體需承擔的義務，也未規定實施機制。該公約缺少法律上的約束力。但是，該公約規定可在後續從屬的議定書中，設定強制排放限制。
簽訂「氣候變化綱要公約」後，全球二氧化碳濃度，仍在不斷上升，原公約減量目標，普遍認為，並未被會員國認真執行。
1997年「京都議定書」：
為了使全球溫室氣體排放量達到預期水準，需要世界各國作出更加細化並具有強制力的承諾。於是1997年12月，「第三次締約國大會」（COP3），於日本京都誕生了「京都議定書」。
議定書在氣候綱要公約的基礎上，對於如何應對氣候變化，做出細化的規定，和具有法律強制力的減量目標。
議定書規範38個國家及歐盟（附件B國家），以個別或共同的方式，控制人為排放之溫室氣體數量，必須在2008-2012年間，將該國溫室氣體排放量，降至1990年平均水準，再減5.2%。
議定書必須獲55個以上國家簽署與其合計二氧化碳排放量，至少占附件一的國家，於1990年，二氧化碳排放總量的55%，議定書才能正式生效。
然而，當時美國總統布希明確表示，美國將不會簽署「京都議定書」。世界各國對當時美國政府，推行不顧全球利益的單邊主義的傾向，深表遺憾。
俄羅斯也拖到2004年11月，才簽署「京都議定書」。歷經六年談判，「京都議定書」才正式於2005年2月生效。
2009/12/18哥本哈根協議
哥本哈根會議最主要任務，是要確定發達國家在「京都議定書」的第二承諾期，即2012年～2020年的減排目標，並且成為是具有法律約束力的減排目標。
協議結果：
明定各國需努力減少溫室氣體排放量，好將全球的升溫控制在攝氏2度以內。
各國必須在2010年1月底前，提報各自減碳目標，並且在未來每兩年就應檢討一次。
簽署協議的已開發國家承諾，應在2010-2012年湊足300億美元的緊急援助資金，提供給開發中國家對抗氣候變遷，到2020年時每年必須達到1000億美元，並將成立哥本哈根綠色氣候基金(Copenhagen Green Climate Fund)來管理。
2015年時必須依更新的科學數據重新檢視協議，包括將控溫目標降至1.5度等。
在氣候公約體制內既有的氣候公約長期行動特設工作組(AWG-LCA)、以及京都議定書特設工作組(AWG-KP)所提出的草案，繼續加以討論，並企求於2010年的氣候會議上達成共識，以期在2012年後接續「京都議定書」，繼續管制全球的溫室氣體排放。
但該協議沒有達成確定各國的減排目標。也不具法律約束力。
哥本哈根協議的全球政治領袖觀點：
美國總統歐巴馬表示，這是一個「史無前例」的協議，不過該協議不具法律約束力，也不足以對抗氣候變遷的威脅。
中國國務院總理溫家寶表示，國家歷史客觀存在，必須正視。不正視歷史，就不會懂得今天國際社會存在的貧富差別，更不會懂得發展中國家謀發展還是最重要的訴求。
法國總統沙克吉認為「內容並不完美」。
德國總理梅爾克則說，勉強接受該協議。
英國首相布朗則說，必須盡快達成有約束力的條約。
加勒比海與拉丁美洲左派領導國家，攻擊哥本哈根協定既不民主，也違背聯合國原則。
最早提出氣候變化威脅的科學家，美國宇航局(NASA)戈達德空間研究所，負責人漢森博士說：發達國家，想要維持自己現在的生產水準，因此打算只花一點錢，從發展中國家，購買排放量限額，根本是個錯誤作法。
2010/4/12，UNFCCC 執行秘書長波爾（Yvo de Boer）在波昂警告：
哥本哈根會議，若協商過程，無法為2010/11/29至2010/12/10，於墨西哥坎肯（Cancun）舉行的會議，帶來突破，將會是個沈重打擊。
他說：「我們（2007年）在峇里島（Bali）取得的共識是，會在兩年後於哥本哈根做出定論，但我們沒做到。」
「終點目前已挪至坎肯，但就取得具法律效力的條約來說，最後終點線若挪至（2011年底的）南非，我也不會意外。」
「哥本哈根是我們最後一張免死金牌，我們禁不起在坎肯再度失敗。」波爾說，「若我們在坎肯再度失敗，外界將對此一進程能做到什麼，信心大失。」
（2）分析（Analyzing）
人類避免氣候環境災難惡性引爆因應策略：
避免全球平均氣溫上升2度c的機率有93％，唯有全球嚴格統一立法控制，改變全球人類的新的生活習慣與方式，未來10年內，全球溫室氣體的排放，減低百分之60，才能達成避免氣候環境災難惡性引爆。
避免氣候環境災難惡性引爆，改變地球人類生活習慣方式二個方向：
一、對全球人類進行道德勸說，改變人類生活習慣方式。
二、對全球人類訂定統一的新生活方式，並立法嚴格執行。
對人類進行道德勸說，改變人類生活習慣方式：
全球各界人類團體，已經主動互相傳播執行，但至今效果有限。
今日拯救地球，防止引爆唯一之路：
只有對全球人類訂定統一的新生活方式，並立法嚴格執行。
而當前地球最有行政執行效果的人類組織，是國家組織。但國家組織，在地球資源的運用上，是互相處於競爭立場。
當前的國家組織：
國家組織，在地球資源的運用上，是互相處於競爭立場。人類歷史，殺害人類最可怕的工具，並不是船堅炮利的科技武器，而是所謂的維護該國家人民安全與壯大的國家組織，或區域集團體制。因此各別的國家組織，如果沒有一種有效的統合與約束的力量，無法有效控制各別的國家組織為國家的利益而互相爭奪，也就無法有效控制地球平均氣溫，免於上升2度c的機率。
當前的聯合國：
聯合國組織模式，是60年前，為順應當時戰亂環境，為穩定世界和平，所產出的新秩序原則，所設計的權宜組織， 60年前時空狀況，擬定之聯合國憲章，其願景、體制、架構框框的執行模式，反而框著國與國、族群與族群鬥爭之傳統思想對應模式，導致牽動各個國家，在私領域的戰略利益和現實考慮下，產生相互間激烈的較量。各個國家以較長時間的協商與妥協，造成總體世界資源，對抗成本提升，因此影響世界人民之和平共存與經濟發展。
在今日全球民主共和主義崛起與地球環境之巨變之下，許多全球性的困難問題與世界國際糾紛問題，已非聯合國組織所能勝任，聯合國大會通過的決議，對各國或政治團體，不具有法律約束力，只有道義力量。況且聯合國會員國為192個，而非聯合國會員國也高達52個（不含爭議地區），目前全世界的主要國家或政治實體，共有244個。因此，聯合國無法代表全球人類，以進行全球政務實際決策與執行，無法有效規範與保障人類未來在地球的永續發展。
「全球性民主共和主義」的「世界整合行政主義」崛起：
強大富裕的美國，自獨立戰爭以來，對外以美國利益優先，對內則執行其民主、共和政治運作機制體制，成為世界各國政治學習標竿，導致「全球性民主共和主義思想」的崛起。
今日全球244個政治實體對外政策，如果能徹底正視「全球民主共和主義思想」的崛起，對全球其他各國民族、政治實體，示以互敬、互愛、互信、互諒的厚道，必贏得其他各國民族、政治實體的尊敬，將更快速改善全球進入「世界整合行政主義 The World Integrate Administrative Ism」的創新國際政治發展，促進世界永續和平共存。
60年來所設計的聯合國組織模式，已完成第二次世界大戰後，穩定世界新秩序使命。由於「全球民主共和主義思想」的崛起，這樣的聯合國權宜組織模式，已不適今日的「全球民主共和主義思想」環境。因此聯合國勢必予以解散，重新擴大建立一個世界國際輿論皆認同，世界各國皆服從，以「全球民主共和」程序，理想的「世界整合行政主義的思想體制」發展。
（3）想像（Imaging）
救世主情境規劃：
祂不是一個偉人個體，祂不是一個強大國家。
祂是一個地球獨一無二的有效管理組織。
祂是由世界輿論皆認同，也是世界各國或政治實體，大家皆服膺的組織。
無論地球那個角落，出現一定層次的災難，祂會即時出現，以既有的標準作業流程，展開有效的救援行動。
祂像個超大型保險公司。
祂匯集宇宙萬物的力量，解決地球的所有重大問題。
人類服膺在祂的統一管理指揮之下，渡過在世平穩的一生。
祂就是世界全人類，共同即將成立的「地球統一管理委員會」。
地球管理委員會，讓我們一起將祂催生吧！
（4）決定（Deciding）
「世界整合行政主義 The World Integrate Administrative Ism」內涵：
倡導我是「地球人」，發動全世界所有人類，鎖定政治行政區的地理現況，倡導：「共同消除世界各國與國之間，包括所有內、外部的軍事武裝侵略戰爭，建設全球性世界整合行政發展制度」。培養全世界人類，以宏觀的心，生活在地球，關懷地球，鎖定當前世界行政區域職能，拋棄種族間歷史的各種紛擾與仇恨，建立世界整合行政發展的世界整體行政與治安新系統；將當前可怕的戰爭的矛盾力量與資源，轉化為建設與復育受傷的地球，救援世界所有弱勢或災害的難民，統合全球人類的整體社會生活發展。
「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」運作體系特徵與定位芻議：
1. 千百年來，具備特質的傳統國家體制，正式解體；成立半世紀以來的聯合國體制，也在全球推動「世界整合行政主義」期間正式解體。
2. 全球244個政治實體，「集合、整合、融合」，將原「聯合國」組織，改組為「世界整合行政政府」體系。
3. 全球244個政治實體議會體系，「集合、整合、融合」，成立全球中央議會，統籌全球發展立法系統。
4. 「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」統領當前世界所有國家與區域集團等全球244個政治實體，擁有對整個世界的領導權、管理權，擔負起治理全球的重任，擔負起實現世界政治一體化的整合行政的使命。
5. 「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」真正被賦予統領全球軍事與公安系統的職權。當前世界各國的軍隊與公安員警系統，直接由「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」統籌控管，各國國防預算逐年調降，各國軍隊逐年縮編，並統籌強化「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」的公安員警系統發展，終將兩系統，整合為「世界整合行政政府」安全維護系統。
6. 「世界整合行政政府The World Integrate Administrative Organization」成立全球電腦網路控制中心，統籌執行全球整合行政安全、文化、教育、商務等及其它相關全球政務的永續發展。
（5）行動（Acting）
今後唯一有效的地球人類共存之道：
今日，維護世界永續和平，並非由超級強權國家，爭相標榜以國際英雄與仲裁者的國際警察角色，但卻為各別國家利益，持以互相反對立場，進行互相敵視的行為；在未被國際輿論認同之下，無視聯合國的存在，擅自指揮軍隊侵入他國的領土，進行實質的侵略戰爭，皆是不可取的不適當行為。
身為當今全世界的主要國家或政治實體領袖們，在處理政務時，必須要不同於昔日資訊不發達的時代的領袖們，要具有宏大的世界觀。國家或政治實體領袖們必須體認，當今世界，已達到必須以全球人類為子民的全球共同統治的時代。
因此，統籌全球人類244個政治實體，共同改造聯合國，成立「地球統一發展管理委員會」，建立合乎「全球民主共和主義」的全球中央議會與世界中央政府組織，統籌當今各別國家所無法處理的世界性的議題與政務，制定與執行今日人類在世界發展的共同規律，與適當統一的「減碳」新生活方式，並嚴格立法執行，共同維護全球人類在整個地球的共和發展，為今後地球人類唯一有效的共存之道。
結語
嘗試以情境規劃等企管理念與體驗，試擬地球人類今後共存之道，這是中長程導向，不確定性極高。但這是聚焦於「描述地球人類今後共存之道，接近未來的真實形貌」（Plausible Futures），協助地球人類的組織變革發展，在高度不確定的環境下，將地球人類的組織變革發展的情境規劃，與其他策略規劃的企管理念思維結合，並付諸執行，讓全球244個政治實體領袖，與其智囊團隊，及地球人類，在地球危機的引爆，沒有發生之前，想像性進入可能的地球人類的組織變革發展的情景預演，當想像的情景出現時，及早審慎思考未來情境並給予因應，以能從容和周密地應對。
本文企圖促使全球244個政治實體領袖與智囊團隊及地球人類，更深入思考未來，強化覺察力，影響所有相關決策，並融入這樣的文化，來加速改變地球人類的心智模式，提升快速應變的能力及創造力，以此情境規劃等企管理念與體驗，試擬地球人類今後共存之道的規劃執行發展，本身即是一種學習的過程（Planning as learning），亦即能夠促動地球人類「組織學習」機制的展開與徹底實踐，讓本文在人類組織內部醱酵或精煉，期能透過本文的催化，進而促動全球244個政治實體領袖與其智囊團隊，及地球人類，今後如本文所述的共存之道進行「組織學習」，形成地球人類不流血的組織大變革的發展，讓地球人類共同創造人類組織學的最高境界，在地球永續共存共榮。
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57.天下文化 郭台銘的鴻海帝國 - 郭語錄選集
Earth's human co-existence of the Road for future
Scenario Planning and other business management concepts to try to be Earth's human co-existence of the Road for future
黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 2010/10/11
Summary
In this paper, scenario planning, business management ideas and experience, try to be human in the future co-exist in the Earth way. In this paper, co-ordinate global human 244 political entities, joint transform the United Nations, innovation establishment of "global unity Development Management Committee", in line with the global expansion of the establishment of a democratic republic of the Earth Council and the World Organization of the central government to co-ordinate individual countries can not deal with the global issues and governance, development and implementation of human development in the common law world, the global harmonization of legislation, according to the implementation of the new way of life of human unity, jointly safeguard global human development in the Republic of the whole planet for future human coexistence Earth Road.
To situations described in this article, try to be Earth's way of human coexistence, an attempt to spur the organization of Earth's bloodless revolution of human development. The situation in a highly uncertain environment, the planet of human development, organizational change scenario planning, strategic planning and the traditional concept of business administration and other operational integration of thinking, so that all the political entities of the world leaders and think-tank team, and the Earth humans, Earth Crisis detonation, has not happened before, imagine the Earth of humanity into the possible development scenarios preview of organizational change, early careful thinking about the future situation, and give the corresponding. That is, can spur of the Earth humans, "organizational learning" mechanism to start, a thorough practice, the formation of Earth's great changes in the organization of human development, so that the Earth humans, work together to create the highest level of human tissue, in the sustainable co-existence of the Earth prosperity.
Preface
Many scientific evidence that global greenhouse gas, have started to decline in 2015 to control the rise in global temperature will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius, or climate change will bring about irreversible global catastrophe; global human, less than 10 years time to stop the world's growing greenhouse gas emissions.
If you do not strictly control the global greenhouse gas emissions, global climate catastrophe, c 2 degrees Celsius will reach the critical point of detonation, that is, climate catastrophe, will set off a vicious, no longer clean up.
In this paper, scenario planning, business management ideas and experience, try to be human in the future co-exist in the Earth way.
Content
Scenario Planning, etc., some ideas and business management experience:
The past century, the world's outstanding business management skills and tools to use to create operational performance. 1900s is the "Taylor scientific management" orientation phase. 1930 Maslow "behavioral science" and Japan "total quality management" theory-oriented phase of the 1960s is a Porter, "Competitive Strategy" management-oriented phase. 1970, further strengthening the "machine of mass production"-oriented phase. In the 1980s, further strengthen the "quality" oriented. 1990 to date, further strengthen the "knowledge and strategy" guidance, management techniques and tools, implementation of corporate operational efficiency.
The author in the workplace to Dr. Deming of the PDCA (plan - do - check - act) management cycle model, Dr. Ichak Adizes treatment concept of corporate life, into eight core concepts of business management ISO international quality management system, develop agriculture business organizations operate and continue to improve the quality of the two 12 - step's cycle model. The other will be "business process reengineering" (Re-engineering the Corporation; Michael Hammer & James Champy) of 4R (Reposition, Restructure, Re-system, Revitalization), comprehensive exposition of years the doorway, and the accumulated experience of more complete evolved into a system affects the whole, are essential for "innovative change 6R" (Reposition, Reorganization & Restructure, Re-system, Revitalization, Reprocessing, Remarketing), the founding idea of the value creation cycle model clinic, the specific implementation of Agribusiness Management benefits.
Futures Master Toffler Alvin Toffler said: "Whoever occupied the high ground of ideas, who can control the world."
Scenario Planning (Scenario planning) is a strategy-oriented management techniques, etc., is an idea way to search is a method to predict the future, "Scenario planning" is a phenomenon unknown future to a de禁用ion of methods, aims to develop a "real world may be how it works" type of logic thinking.
In 2006, the situation and contingency planning and management techniques, became popular in the world of the latest management techniques of 25, tied with the KM and BPR global ranking of No. 8.
Scenario Planning first appeared shortly after the Second World War, was a military planning method. U.S. Air Force tried to imagine its competitors, what measures might be taken, and then prepare the appropriate strategy.
60 years in the 20th century, the Rand Corporation and has worked at the U.S. Air Force ‧ Herman Kahn (Herman Kahn), into this military planning method, refined into a business forecasting tool.
Scenario planning enables organizations, a holistic transformation, guided towards the best future.
Scenario Planning Scenario planning (TAIDA) steps:
(1) explore the trajectory (Tracking), follow the signs of environmental change and to explore the potential opportunities and threats, and confirm the trend.
(2) Analysis (Analyzing), have occurred or are produced according to changing events, the causal relationship analysis of trends and planning for the future possible scenarios.
(3) imagine (Imaging), confirmed the likelihood of future scenarios, and to join the vision of organizational development, which organized the expected future (desired future).
(4) decision (Deciding), according to the information obtained, a measure of its importance, and make decisions, and to develop action strategies, according to.
(5) Operations (Acting): the organization planning the new information brought to the organization and members of the old experience, and their integration, and begin to take action.
Scenario Planning simulate future scenarios, to remind the managers and members, the immediate use of management systems and processes which may be none for the next business morph, to change business models, ideas, concepts, mindset and values. To inspire and motivate members in-depth thinking about the future, thawed and remodeling mental models, active learning new things, amendments to the common mode of thinking, and action strategies to implement solutions in order to create a successful future.
In addition, the father of modern educational psychology Thorndike (1890) theory of operant conditioning enhancement: "operant conditioning learning", also known as "tool constraints learning", external stimuli> intrinsic reaction> consequences. Is a behavioral change caused by the stimulation of the process and methods. Response to external stimuli and internal inertia contact award or punishment for continuous operation, and increase or decrease. Any animal behavior, is the history of rewards and sanctions by the decision. Behavior change is to stimulate, therefore, the animals were active, can be regarded as operations on the environment. Appropriate incentives, can shape animal behavior. Many of the ideas or behavior, is through practice, and learn to experience is gained. Appropriate rewards and punishments (reinforcement), can stimulate the reaction (behavior) of the moon into, so sometimes at the right time, given the appropriate stimulus (reinforcement), it is actually a culture of life pattern of behavior (reaction) approach.
In addition, the management philosophy of yin and yang of China "tolerance is a virtue": to cross the border, we must sacrifice some of their own, but also across the other side of your border. See the whole picture (strategy) and to break the artificial boundary (boundary) is to integrate the core of the problem. "Gou business Quotations" triple the work proposed by the spirit of "collection, integration, integration": how the first set and then combined, from the combination of advanced to the integration, and finally fused into one, but (Organization) the biggest business challenges.
The future of mankind on Earth Do right thing thinking, scenario planning, to above, the ancient and modern business management concepts and experience, try to be human in the future coexistence of the Road in the earth.
The living environment of human beings on earth Status:
Groups of human behavior is always in the "boiling frog's Law," ass is not perceived. Greenhouse gas, is now higher than during the past 65 years.
The United Nations "of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" estimate, and from 1980 to 1999 standards, compared with each other, to 2100, global surface temperature will rise 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees Celsius.
Warming, leading to ocean warming and the polar ice melt, such as all the icebergs are melting, sea levels will rise 60 meters, by 2100 sea levels will be increased by 15-95 cm, leading to saltwater intrusion in low-lying areas around the world 3 1 of the population living in the coastal edge will be threatened.
Presumably, to AD 2050, the earth's average temperature will rise by 2 degrees Celsius; in the past years, the Earth's average temperature increased by only 2 degrees Celsius.
Scientists say that global greenhouse gas, have started to decline in 2015 to control the rise in global temperature will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius, or climate change will bring about irreversible global catastrophe; global human, less than 10 years, stop the world's growing greenhouse gas emissions.
Climatic and environmental disaster set off the main cause has been identified is the current living habits and ways of human caused.
This is a global human emergency, this is a global leader of 244 political entities, today to urgently address the moral and responsibilities.
The current global climate change deal with the situation of human
1992 "Framework Convention on Climate Change":
In May 1992 by the United Nations Headquarters in New York, "the Framework Convention on Climate Change", March 21, 1994 the Convention entered into force.
Provisions of the Convention, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, stability in the prevention of the climate system, are dangerous anthropogenic interference level. This level should be sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production from the threat, and to enable economic development to the ongoing implementation within the time frame. "
But the Convention, not to individual parties, with specific obligations to be assumed, but also does not provide mechanisms for implementation. The lack of legally binding convention. However, the subordination provisions of the Convention in the follow-up protocol, set mandatory emission limits.
Signed a "Framework Convention on Climate Change", the global carbon dioxide concentration continues to rise, the original objectives of the Convention on reduction, generally agreed that Member States have not been fully implemented.
In 1997 the "Kyoto Protocol":
In order to global greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the desired level, need to make the world a more refined and have mandatory commitments. Then in December 1997, "The Third Assembly of States Parties" (COP3), was born in Kyoto, Japan, "Kyoto Protocol."
Protocol to the Framework Convention on climate, based on how to address climate change, to make detailed provisions and legally mandatory reduction targets.
Protocol specification 38 countries and the European Union (Annex B countries) to individual or common way to control the number of man-made emissions of greenhouse gases must be between 2008-2012, the country's greenhouse gas emissions to their 1990 average, minus 5.2%.
Protocol must be more than 55 countries signed the total carbon dioxide emissions, Annex I countries accounting for at least, in 1990, 55% of total carbon dioxide emissions, the Protocol to enter into force.
However, when U.S. President George W. Bush made it clear that the U.S. would not sign the "Kyoto Protocol." Countries around the world when the U.S. government's unilateral implementation of global interests, despite the tendency, deeply regret.
Russia has also dragged in November 2004, only signed the "Kyoto Protocol." After six years of negotiations, "Kyoto Protocol" was officially entered into force in February 2005.
2009/12/18 Copenhagen agreement
Copenhagen, the most important task is to determine the developed countries in the "Kyoto Protocol" of the second commitment period, ie 2012 to 2020 emission reduction targets, and become a legally binding emission reduction targets.
Agreement results:
Stipulates that countries need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and good control of global warming within 2 degrees Celsius.
States must be before the end of January 2010, reporting their carbon reduction goals, and in the future should be reviewed once every two years.
Developed countries signed the agreement promised, should gather in 2010-2012 30 billion U.S. dollars in emergency assistance funds available to developing countries to combat climate change by 2020 to reach 100 billion U.S. dollars each year, and the establishment of the Copenhagen Climate Green Fund (Copenhagen Green Climate Fund) to manage.
2015 must be updated according to the scientific data to review the agreement, including the target temperature to 1.5 degree.
Within the system established in the UNFCCC Climate Convention, the Ad Hoc Working Group on long-term action (AWG-LCA), and the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) proposed by the draft, to continue the discussion, and seek in the 2010 climate conference agreed to continue after 2012 the "Kyoto Protocol" to control global greenhouse gas emissions.
But the agreement does not identify the countries to reach emission reduction targets. Not legally binding.
Copenhagen agreement, political leaders view the world:
Copenhagen agreement, political leaders view the world:
Barack Obama said that this is a "unprecedented" agreement, but the agreement is not legally binding, is not enough to combat climate change threat.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that the objective existence of the country's history, must be faced. Do not face up to history, they will not understand today's rich-poor gap in the international community, not to know or the most important developing countries and development aspirations.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy that "content is not perfect."
Germany's Merck says, reluctantly accepted the agreement.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the need to reach a binding treaty as soon as possible.
Caribbean and Latin American leftists of leading the country to attack the Copenhagen agreement is neither democratic, nor contrary to the principles of the United Nations.
First to propose the threat of climate change scientists, NASA (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Research, leader Hansen said: developed countries, want to maintain their current level of production, and intends to spend only a little money, from the development countries to buy emissions quotas, there is a wrong practice.
2010/4/12, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Boer (Yvo de Boer) in Bonn warned:
Copenhagen, if the consultation process, not as 2010/11/29 to 2010/12/10, the meeting in Cancun, Mexico, bringing a breakthrough will be a heavy blow.
He said: "We (2007) in Bali to obtain the consensus is made in two years after the conclusion of Copenhagen, but we did not do it."
"End point has moved to Cancun, but on the legal effect of treaties made, the final finish line if the move to (the end of 2011's) South African, I would not be unexpected."
"Copenhagen is our last piece of amnesty, we can not withstand another failure in Cancun." Boer said, "If we fail again in Cancun, the outside world will be able to do what this one process, confidence from."
Humanity from the vicious climate disasters detonated coping strategies:
Avoid a global average temperature increase of 2 degrees c, 93% chance that only the world's strict control of the harmonization of legislation, changes in the new global human habits and ways of life, the next 10 years, global greenhouse gas emissions, reduce 60 percent, can be reached to avoid a vicious climate disasters detonated.
To avoid the vicious climate disasters detonated way to change the habits of human life the earth two directions:
First, the global human moral persuasion, to change the habits of human life ways.
Second, the global unity of mankind set a new lifestyle and strict implementation of legislation.
Human moral persuasion, to change human lifestyles by:
All human groups worldwide, has spread the implementation of each initiative, but has limited effect.
Save the Earth today, the only road to prevent the detonation:
Only unity of the global set of new human life, and the legislation strictly enforced.
The current implementation of the Earth's most effective administration of human organization is a national organization. But the national organization, the use of resources on the earth, is in competition with each other's position.
The current national organizations:
National organizations, the use of resources on the earth, is in competition with each other's position. Human history, killing the most awesome human beings, not ships and armament technology weapons, but the so-called safeguard the national security of the people and strengthening of national organizations, or regional group system. So the other national organizations, without a valid and binding power of integration, can not effectively control the other national organizations for the benefit of competing countries, will not be able to effectively control the earth's average temperature, free from rising 2 degrees c, probability.
The current United Nations:
Model United Nations, 60 years ago to comply with the then war-torn environment, the stability of world peace, the output of the principles of the new order, the design of the expedient organization, time and space situation 60 years ago, the development of the United Nations Charter, its vision system , the implementation of frame structure model, but framed countries, ethnic groups and ethnic struggles of traditional thinking and corresponding mode, leading to affect all countries, in the private sphere of strategic interests and practical considerations, the contest generated intense between each other. Various countries over a longer period of consultation and compromise, resulting in the whole world's resources against the cost of upgrading, thereby affecting the people of the world of peaceful coexistence and economic development.
In today's global rise of democratic republic under the Earth changes the environment, many global problems and difficulties in the world of international disputes, longer can be handled by the United Nations Organization, United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on national or political group, not legally binding, only moral force. Moreover, 192 United Nations Member States and not United Nations Member States have up to 52 (excluding the disputed area), the current world countries or political entities, a total of 244. Therefore, the United Nations can not represent global human, to carry out the actual decision-making and implementation of global government can not effectively regulate and protect the future of mankind in the earth's sustainable development.
"Global democratic republicanism," the "world integration administrative doctrine" Rise:
Powerful affluent United States, since the war since independence, foreign priority to U.S. interests at home while the implementation of its democratic, republican political system, operation mechanism, to become the world standard of political learning, leading to a "global democratic republican ideas" rise.
Today, the world's 244 political entities, foreign policy, if fully address the "global democratic republican ideology," the rise of other countries in the global ethnic, political entities, to show mutual respect, mutual love, mutual trust, mutual understanding of the kind, will win other countries nation, the respect of political entities, more rapid improvement of the global access to "world integration administrative doctrine The World Integrate Administrative Ism" innovative international political development, promoting sustainable peaceful coexistence in the world.
60 years of organizational model designed by the United Nations, after World War II has been completed, the new world order and stability mission. As the "global democratic republican ideology," the rise of organizations like the United Nations hoc mode is not suitable for today's "global democratic republican ideas" environment. Therefore, the United Nations is bound to be dissolved and re-expansion of a world public opinion are recognized around the world are subject to a "global democratic republic" program, the ideal "world integration administrative ideology system" development.
Messianic Scenario Planning:
He is not a great individual, he is not a strong country.
He is a unique and effective management of the Earth organization.
He is by the world public opinion all agree, is the world's countries or political entities, we are adhering to the organization.
both corners of the earth that appeared certain level of catastrophe, he will immediately occur to the existing standard operating procedures, expand the effective rescue operations.
He like large insurance companies.
He brings together the power of everything in the universe, the earth all the major issues to resolve.
human subscribe to the unified management under the command of His, through living a stable life.
He is the world of all mankind together under the "Earth's unified management committee."
Global management committee, let us his birth to it!
"World integration administrative doctrine The World Integrate Administrative Ism" meaning:
I advocate a "global", launching the world all human, political and administrative geography lock status, advocates: "Elimination of the world's common between countries, including all the inside and outside the military armed aggression, to build global nature of world integration administrative development system. " World of human culture to the macroscopic heart, living in the earth, care for the Earth, lock the current world regional administrative functions, abandon the race between the various disputes and hatred of history, the establishment of world integration administrative development of the world as a whole new system, administrative and public order; the current terrible conflict of war power and resources into building and restoration of the wounded earth, vulnerable, or disaster relief of all the world's refugees, the integration of the overall global human development of social life.
"Integration of the executive government of The World Integrate Administrative Organization" and the Location of the operating system features:
1. For thousands of years, have characteristics of traditional state system, the formal dissolution; half a century since the establishment of the United Nations system, also the world promoting "world integration administrative doctrine" during the formal dissolution.
2. Global 244 political entities, "the collection, integration, integration", the original "United Nations", the restructuring of the "world integration administrative government" system.
3. Global 244 political entities, parliamentary system, "the collection, integration, integration", the establishment of the Global Central Council to co-ordinate the global development of the legislative system.
4. "Integration of the executive government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization" to guide the current world all countries and regional groups such as the world's 244 political entities, with the whole world, leadership, management, and undertake the task of global governance, responsible for realizing the world the integration of administrative and political integration of the mission.
5. "Integration of the executive government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization" was given command of a real world military and public security system functions. The current world system of the armed forces and security police officers directly from the "world integration administrative government The World Integrate Administrative Organization" overall control, national defense budget cut year after year, gradually downsizing the armed forces of States, and strengthen co-ordination, "Integration of the executive government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization "of the public security police system development, and eventually the two systems, integration of the" world integration administrative government "security maintenance.
6. "Integration of the executive government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization" establishment of a global computer network control center, co-ordinate the implementation of global integration of administrative security, culture, education, commerce and other related sustainable development of global government.
The only effective future way of human coexistence on Earth:
Today, safeguarding world peace and sustainable, not by the super power countries, eager to flaunt international hero and the role of arbiter of international police, but for the interests of individual countries, hold in order to stand against each other, conduct mutually hostile behavior; without be recognized by the international public opinion, ignoring the United Nations presence, unauthorized military command invaded the territory, the real war of aggression are inappropriate behavior is not desirable.
As of today the world's major countries or political entities, leaders, in dealing with government, must be different from the old era of information developed leaders, to have a grand view of the world. State or a political entity leaders must recognize that today's world, must have reached a global human subjects for the global domination of the era.
Therefore, the overall global human 244 political entities, joint transform the United Nations, the establishment of "global unity Development Management Committee", the establishment of "global democratic republicanism," the Central Council and the world of global central government, to co-ordinate individual countries can not handle today's global issues and governance, development and implementation of human development in the world today, common law, with the appropriate uniform of the "carbon reduction" new way of life, and the implementation of strict legislation, and jointly safeguard the global human development in the republic, the entire planet for future Earth the only human way of effective co-existence.
Conclusion
Try to Scenario Planning and other business management ideas and experience, try to be the next global human coexistence way, this is the long-term orientation, uncertainty is high. But that is focused on "the future of human co-existence of the earth described in Road, close to the real profile of the future" (Plausible Futures), the organizational change to help the Earth human development, in a highly uncertain environment, the Earth's human development, organizational change Scenario planning, strategic planning, business administration and other concepts of thinking combined and implemented for the world's 244 leaders of political entities, and their think-tank team, and the Earth humans, Earth crisis, detonated, did not happen before, imagine the potential of entering the Earth human development, organizational change scenario rehearsal, when the imagined scenario appears, carefully think about the future situation as soon as possible and give the light to be able to respond calmly and carefully.
This attempt to drive the 244 political entities, the global think-tank teams and world leaders and human beings, think more deeply about the future, strengthen the perceived power, affecting all relevant decision-making, and integration into such a culture, to accelerate change in the earth the human heart Zhihui model, to enhance rapid response ability and creativity, this situation planning, business management ideas and experience, the author proposes the earth of human coexistence way of planning for future implementation of development, itself is a learning process (Planning as learning), that is, that promoted the Earth humans " organizational learning "mechanism to start with a thorough practice, so that this fermentation in the human organization or refined, of a catalyst through this, in turn spur the 244 political entities, the global think-tank leaders and their teams, and Earth humans in the future as described in this article The Road to the coexistence of "organizational learning", the formation of the Earth humans are not great changes in the organization of blood development, to create the Earth of mankind the highest level of human tissue, in the Earth's sustainable coexistence.
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56. UNFCCC 19-Dec-09“Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference ends with political agreement to cap temperature rise, reduce emissions and raise finance”
Copenhagen Accord
